Aim at the center of the fairway only when the 2 sides have the same cost. Water on 1 side and rough on the other side do not have the same cost. In this condition, aim toward the rough. In our example, a 15-handicap golfer aims 9 yards to the right of the center. The golfer hits fewer fairways: 58 of 100 drives, not 65. But only 7 drives go into the water, not 18, and the expected score is lower.
Most golfers aim at the center of the fairway. This aim point is the farthest point from the 2 edges. Because of this, many golfers think that it is the safest aim point.
But this is only true when the 2 edges have the same cost. Usually, they do not. A drive into light rough adds a small number of strokes. A drive into water adds a penalty stroke and a drop, and often it prevents a green in regulation. If you think that these 2 results are equal, the center is not safe.
Your pattern is wider than the fairway
Each drive starts on a slightly different line. These lines spread out into a pattern. This article calls it the dispersion pattern. The important question is the width of your dispersion pattern, not the location of your best drive.
Before CNDR has your data, it estimates your dispersion pattern from your handicap. For a 15 handicap, the estimate is a start-line spread of approximately 4.3 degrees. At a carry of 230 yards, this gives approximately ±17 yards for a typical drive. Approximately 8 of 10 drives land in an area that is 47 yards wide.
These values are estimates. They are not measurements of you. Data from a full season of your tracked drives is better. But for almost all amateur golfers, the dispersion pattern is wider than the fairway. Because of this, some drives will miss the fairway at all aim points. You cannot prevent all misses, but you can select the side of the miss.
1 hole, 100 drives
This example uses a par 4 with a fairway that is 32 yards wide. Water is along all of the left edge. On the right side, there are 20 yards of rough. Trees are to the right of the rough.
To compare aim points, each miss must have a cost. The cost is the average number of strokes that the miss adds, compared to a drive on the fairway. Real costs change with each hole and each golfer. Because of this, the values below are round example values. They agree approximately with published strokes-gained research.
0 strokes. This is the reference.
Approximately 0.3 strokes. The lie is worse, but usually you can hit the green.
Approximately 0.7 strokes. Usually, you must hit the ball back to the fairway.
Approximately 1.1 strokes. You get a penalty stroke, and the next shot starts from a worse position.
Now hit the same 100 drives at 2 aim points. With the aim at the center, 18 drives go into the water. Move the aim 9 yards to the right, and use the same swing. Now only 7 drives go into the water. The figure at the top of this article shows the 2 sets of drives.
Fewer fairways, lower score
The result is not what most golfers expect. With the aim to the right, fewer drives land on the fairway. More drives land in the right rough. If you use fairways hit to measure your round, the better strategy looks worse.
| Aim point | Water | Fairway | Rough | Trees | Expected cost for each drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Center | 18 | 65 | 16 | 2 | 0.256 strokes |
| 4 yards to the right | 12 | 63 | 21 | 3 | 0.222 strokes |
| 9 yards to the right | 7 | 58 | 28 | 6 | 0.208 strokes |
| 16 yards to the right | 3 | 47 | 38 | 12 | 0.235 strokes |
| 20 yards to the right | 2 | 39 | 41 | 18 | 0.269 strokes |
Results for 100 drives from the 15-handicap model. The values are rounded. Because of this, the sum of a row can be different from 100.
The best aim point decreases the cost by approximately 0.05 strokes for this 1 drive. This is a small value. But you do not need a new swing, a lesson or practice to get it. The same decision occurs at each shot that has a hazard on 1 side. During a round, the total of these small decreases becomes larger.
The fairways-hit statistic shows how often you prevent the least expensive miss. It does not show how often you get the most expensive miss.
The best aim is a range, not a line
Look at the costs again. Between approximately 6 and 12 yards to the right, the cost changes very little. Farther to the right, the trees become a problem, and the cost increases. At 20 yards to the right, the cost is higher than with the aim at the center.
This gives 2 lessons. First, your aim does not have to be exact. All aim points in the flat part of the range are almost equally good. Because of this, select an aim point that you can see, for example a bunker edge, a tree or a mower stripe. Second, do not move too far from 1 hazard. If you move away from 1 hazard into a different hazard, that is also a mistake.
Wide patterns need more space
Use the same hole for different golfers, and the best aim point changes. A narrow dispersion pattern can go nearer to the water, because fewer drives get to it. A wide dispersion pattern needs more space.
| Handicap | Typical spread at 230 yd | Best aim point | Water, aim at center | Water, best aim point |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | ±15 yd | 7.5 yd to the right | 15 of 100 | 6 of 100 |
| 10 | ±16 yd | 8 yd to the right | 16 of 100 | 7 of 100 |
| 15 | ±17 yd | 9 yd to the right | 18 of 100 | 7 of 100 |
| 20 | ±19 yd | 9.5 yd to the right | 20 of 100 | 9 of 100 |
| 25 | ±21 yd | 11 yd to the right | 22 of 100 | 10 of 100 |
The hole and the costs are the same as above. The spreads are first CNDR estimates for each handicap. All values use a carry of 230 yards. Because of this, only the spread changes.
Because of this, a general tip such as “aim away from the hazard” is not correct for all golfers. The correct aim point is related to your dispersion pattern. A tour player has a much narrower pattern. If an amateur uses the line of a tour player, more drives will go into the hazard.
How CNDR makes the plan
The example uses 1 hole, 1 club and 1 simple hazard. A real round is more complex. The fairway can turn, and bunkers are at different distances. A longer club puts different hazards in range. The aim point on the tee also changes the approach shot.
The CNDR caddie plans do the same calculation for the full course. For each shot on the hole, the plan compares clubs and aim points. It uses these 3 inputs:
Your club distances and your shot spread. Before CNDR has your data, it estimates the spread from your handicap. You can also set your driver spread in the app.
The mapped fairway, rough, bunkers, water and green. The plan has the most detail when the course is fully mapped.
The expected strokes from each position where the ball can stop. This includes misses, not only the shot that you want.
CNDR shows an ellipse on the map. The planner uses the same model to calculate the cost of each option. Because of this, the ellipse that you see agrees with the calculation. When the best line is not at the center, the plan shows the aim point and the club. It also shows the probable cost of a miss.
Questions from golfers
Should I always aim at the center of the fairway?
No. Aim at the center only when the hazards on the 2 sides have approximately the same cost. When 1 side has a much higher cost, aim toward the side with the lower cost. You will hit fewer fairways, but your expected score will be lower.
How wide is the driver dispersion of an amateur golfer?
For a 15 handicap, the first CNDR estimate is approximately ±17 yards at a carry of 230 yards. Approximately 8 of 10 drives land in an area that is 47 yards wide. Your tracked drives give a better value than an estimate.
How far from a hazard must I aim?
The distance is related to your dispersion pattern and to the cost of the other side. In this example, the best aim point is 7.5 yards from the center for a 5 handicap. For a 25 handicap, it is 11 yards. If you aim too far away, the hazard on the other side becomes a problem.
Does this also apply to approach shots?
Yes. The same calculation shows if you must aim at the flag or at the center of the green. An approach pattern also has a long and short spread, not only a left and right spread. Because of this, a flag near the edge of the green or a bunker behind the green can change the aim point.
Does CNDR select aim points automatically?
Yes. A caddie plan selects the club and the aim point for each shot on the course. CNDR is free with 3 caddie plans each month. CNDR Pro gives unlimited plans and automatic tracking. It costs $7.99 each month or $79.99 each year in the US.
Method. The lateral results use a normal distribution. The spread values are CNDR start-line estimates. For each handicap, they are: 3.8° at 5, 4.0° at 10, 4.3° at 15, 4.7° at 20 and 5.2° at 25. All values use a carry of 230 yards. These values are model assumptions for golfers with no tracked data. They are not measurements of a golfer.
The widths of the fairway, the rough and the trees are example values for 1 hole. The costs of the misses are also round example values. The 100 drives in the figure are equally spaced quantiles of the model. Because of this, the counts agree with the expected values of the model.
Sources
- Mark Broadie, Every Shot Counts (Gotham Books, 2014): strokes gained and the expected-strokes method for course strategy.
- PGA TOUR: Bryson DeChambeau and the long drives at Augusta National: the 65-yard dispersion pattern of a tour driver. CNDR uses this value as the tour-level reference.